Monday, May 28, 2007

Deviation from plan = not good

The news is not good from the Sunday night session. Down 298 in the donkish-most fashion.

Opportunity lost? About an hour in, the guy under the gun who has been playing short stacked goes all-in. I look up from the table to see his 75 or so chips in front of him. I even make a "zoiks" movement to accent the fact that I don't know what the guy is doing. He has literally been sitting there for as long as I could remember and has not entered any pots that I could think of. Here he is, hasn't played a hand all night, first to act and he puts in 75 to pick up 4 dollars in blinds. Folds around to me and I am cursed with Queens. I had either Aces or a crappy hand and now I am in the tank. I've seen moves like this before in tournaments where someone pushes with Aces and tries to make it look like a blind steal when in fact they are really trying to solicit someone they have badly dominated. I've done that before even. So my range of hands that I would put someone on in that situation are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK or so. I'm only really a big favorite against JJ and the odds of QQ are very remote. That leaves the majority of the hands as coin flips or crushing me. I ask the table for time to figure out what I want to do. Maybe he is making a move with nothing or a small pair but it just doesn't make sense to me. He could do the same thing with a raise to 20. I have no money invested in the pot and I just know I would be kicking myself for calling off 75 and running into Aces. If he wanted to just steal some blinds with a small pair or random hand then why wouldn't he do so from last position after there are more callers in the pot? Then again one could argue that if he really did have KK or AA in first position then he might have limp/pushed instead though that would require someone along the way raising. The arguments and counter-arguments raced around in circles in my head. I ended up folding. He first said he had Aces then changed his story later to saying he had a small pair. Whatever. Weird weird hand.

How many times to I need to tell myself to not go broke with one pair? I have sat a while and posted blinds, taking down some pots here or there when along strolls in the Cowboys. I raise it up to isolate and get one caller. Good. Then I get another caller...bad. Flop comes out TT5 with two spades and I am the first to act. I throw out 50 to try to price out draws. Fold. Then Seat 9 sizes up my stack, mulls it over then raises me all in for about another 75 or so. In the back of my head I hear echoes saying "...don't go broke with one pair..." but instead I manufacture a story about what hand I'd LIKE him to be having. In a previous hand I heard him saying that he will call with enough other callers to a big raise with suited connectors. I also saw him catch a set against an overpair and his actions were more deliberate, less calculating so told myself he had an Ace/face suited in spades and he was priced in plus pushing on me would have some fold equity on a scary looking paired board. I call of the rest of my stack and he shows a KhTh so he even has one of my outs. Domination ain't what it used to be. I don't catch the case King and I'm felted.

Tired now. I'll finish more of this later.

1 comment:

jtrey333 said...

You folded Queens? To an all-in $75 in a 1-2 NL game in Vegas? Oh boy. We got some more stuff to talk about when you get back. Maybe Martin XP needs SP2 so he can get some security...